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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."